Circle November 6 on your calendar.
That day, one of America’s most controversial disruptor stocks will likely get crushed.
If history’s any indication, it could easily plunge 10% or even 15%.
Rumors will fly that the company is going out of business.
But if you know what’s coming, you have nothing to worry about. You could even capitalize on the fear.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if November 6 turns out to be the best opportunity to buy this beaten down stock ahead of a big bounce.
Dara Khosrowshahi, who was brought in as Uber CEO to clean-up co-founder Travis Kalanick’s mess, needs to prove the company can still innovate, early Uber investor Bradley Tusk told CNBC on Monday.
For most people, driving is more hazardous than any other work activity they do. Federal government statistics indicate that transportation accidents account for approximately 40% of all job-related injury deaths annually.
The number of deaths recorded for the broad occupational group of “motor vehicle operators” have exceeded those for any other broad group, again for decades. In 2016, 1,012 drivers died. In 2017, 1,084 drivers died.
Moreover, most of us think we are better than average drivers. Driving is the classic example of what psychologists call “optimism bias.” Most of us share the tendencies to underestimate risks, overrate our ability to avoid them, and believe our driving competencies are better than they are. Even setting aside our abilities, many other drivers may not be capable, and some may be drunk.
But most of us do not drive every hour we work. Driving disproportionally kills people who drive the most.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics maintains two data sets that are the gold standard for investigating dangerous jobs: the Survey of Occupational (non-fatal) Injuries and Illness and the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries. BLS places Uber and Lyft drivers within the “taxicab and chauffeur” occupation and the “taxicab and limousine service” industry. BLS places GrubHub drivers within the “driver/sales workers” occupation and “local messengers and delivery” industry.
I used recent BLS data to estimate risks and job percentile rankings. The non-fatal injury rate estimate for Uber and Lyft drivers is 173.8 per 10,000 full-time workers, with percentile rank 13.0. This indicates that 86.9% of jobs have lower injury rates and 12.9% have higher injury rates.
The fatality rate for Uber and Lyft drivers is 14.6 per 100,000 full-time workers, with percentile rank 19.4. This indicates that 80.5% of jobs have lower fatality risks and 19.3% have higher fatality risks.
For GrubHub drivers, the non-fatality rate is 205.7 per 10,000 with percentile rank 9.0; the fatality rate is 24.8 per-100,000 with percentile rank 10.6.
My estimates also indicate that Uber and Lyft drivers face fatal risks that are 1.1 and 2.6 times the fatality rate for police officers and firefighters. The corresponding estimates for GrubHub drivers are 2.0 and 4.4.
These high-risk statistics are not new. Occupational death and injury rates for the categories of taxi driver and driver/sales worker have been very high for decades. My studies using data from the 1980s and 1990s placed taxi drivers and driver/sales workers within the top 1% to 10%.
Are these injury rate estimates too high or too low?
One “too high” criticism is that whereas taxi drivers work full time, many Uber, Lyft and GrubHub drivers do not.
But when gig workers are not driving, they are not gig drivers. Total deaths for gig drivers may be less than total deaths for taxi drivers, but the relevant statistic is their risk while working. That’s exactly what the BLS data measures.
Another “too high” criticism is that many deaths and injuries for taxi drivers result from assaults by riders, and this risk may not apply to gig drivers. But gig riders also can be inebriated. In addition, higher percentages of gig drivers are female, compared to taxicab drivers. Females are more often the target of rape.
Finally, driver/sales workers (say, for GrubHub) do not drive riders.
A “too low” criticism is the likelihood that taxi drivers are more aware of risks. They know and converse with co-workers; they are frequently unionized; and they have newsletters, magazines, and professional websites. Knowledge of risks likely improves their safe driving abilities.
A second “too low” criticism involves conditions of employment. Taxi drivers are typically employees, whereas gig drivers are independent contractors. Taxi drivers, but not gig drivers, fall under OSHA jurisdiction.Taxi companies must pay workers compensation insurance premiums; gig companies do not. These premiums provide companies with an economic incentive to reduce driver injuries. Some taxi companies, including those in San Francisco, require safety training.
A third “too low” criticism is that gig drivers are more likely young with less work experience than taxi drivers. Both are strong predictors of vehicle accidents. Considering that the “too low” criticisms appear stronger than the “too high” ones and that the 19.4% estimate is an outlier, Uber, Lyft and Grubhub drivers are likely within the top 13% to top 1% of the most dangerous jobs in the country. In addition, their death rates range from 10% to 340% higher than police officers and firefighters.
Finally, Uber (and likely all gig) drivers are not rewarded for taking these risks: whereas taxi drivers are paid approximately $14 to $21 per hour, Uber drivers are paid approximately $12 per hour.
Original Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com
Uber and Lyft drivers reveal the biggest differences they've noticed between the 2 ride-hailing giants
Uber and Lyft do basically the same thing.
Sure, one is pink and the other is black; one is global while the other is focused only on the US and Canada; and one has plans for flying taxis while the other doesn't. But when it comes to getting from point-A to point-B, there's not much difference.
That's good for drivers, a massive fraction of which drive for both Uber and Lyft (and even for other smaller companies in markets large enough to have competitors like Via).
Most of the time, the experience on the competing apps is roughly the same. But after hundreds if not thousands of rides, drivers start to notice the little differences. In many cases, these vary from market to market.
Business Insider spoke to 10 drivers about their experiences. Here's what they see as the biggest differences between the two largest ride-hailing companies:
"This is the number one question I get from passengers," Ray, a driver from Miami, said. "I say which ever one where the passenger actually leaves a tip."
"Uber is far more organized and understands that by helping the drivers, it improves the customer experience," Roger, a driver in North Carolina said.
"The only reason I give Lyft a slight edge over Uber is because Uber has not updated the map in my region in a long time," Darron, a driver in Virginia, said. "One way streets have turned into two-way streets and Uber still has it as one-way."
"Uber has more riders in my area," Max, a driver in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, said. "Lyft sometimes adds passengers to my queue without asking."
"Lyft gives you more information about the customer," Michael, a driver in Dallas, said. "I like being able to see how long someone has had an account or how many rides they've taken. It makes me more comfortable."
"Lyft advertises itself as more driver-friendly but that hasn't been my experience," Aris, a driver in New York City, said "The distance and time to pickup averages double usually so I stick to Uber."
"The only major difference is that Uber has way more calls in my area," Horacio, a driver in Orlando, said, echoing Aris' comments.
"Uber is far more organized and understands that by helping the drivers," James, a driver in Orlando, said. "It improves the customer experience. Lyft, on the other hand, is uncaring and hides behind the internet and email," he continued. "If I treated my riders the way Lyft has treated me, I would receive a 1-star rating."
"There are differences in surge pay, differences in drive time per day, and in their support teams," Jenny, a driver in New Jersey, said. "Uber shadily up-charges business-class passengers who take the same trips every week (they've admitted to this), and many, many more."
"Lyft riders in my area are like Walmart shoppers whereas the Uber riders are like Macy's shoppers," Tim, a driver in New Jersey, said.